COE Charts - Intepretations

kenntona

Well-Known Member
Legendary 10 Years
How do you intepret the following 10-year chart on COE quota on overall and Cat B COEs?
 
Re: COE Charts - Intepretations

Looks like many tall mountains to me.
 
Re: COE Charts - Intepretations

Just to clarify, these are the quota numbers, not the premium amount.

And think along the line of 10 year COE renewal/supply.....
 
Re: COE Charts - Intepretations

it means if u are one of the 352 in the latest round of COE bidding, you da man!
 
Re: COE Charts - Intepretations

I am trying to see if anyone could find any indicator to justify many gurus' projection that COE will hit $100K....... seemed to me it is a trend/sentiment indicator rather than based on any data.......
 
Re: COE Charts - Intepretations

lui tuck yew says COE prices going up because economy is doing well.

economy is doing damn well. COE will continue to rocket. the quota is not a factor.
 
Re: COE Charts - Intepretations

kenntona;794894 said:
How do you intepret the following 10-year chart on COE quota on overall and Cat B COEs?

End of 2013 beginning of 2014 is when we will see the first wave of COEs come in when these cars hit the 10yr mark, if one wants to change car, the end 2013 period will be a good time to start looking.
 
Re: COE Charts - Intepretations

New found base is $80k. Next threshold is gonna be $100k. While we are talking, many rich people are buying new cars like no tomorrow.

3-series and C-class is going to be more common than Toyota Altis and Nissan Sunny (Selphy) soon. One trend noticed is more and more new Korean cars on the road.
 
Re: COE Charts - Intepretations

but if gov slash quota how
ie: 10,000 de-register but only re-release 7,000
that means 10,000 owners need to outbid each other for 7,000 coes?
even no slash in quota, isn't 10,000 existing owners scrap car and buy new car = no extra coe + still got new buyer coming into market?

PropT;794922 said:
End of 2013 beginning of 2014 is when we will see the first wave of COEs come in when these cars hit the 10yr mark, if one wants to change car, the end 2013 period will be a good time to start looking.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Re: COE Charts - Intepretations

PropT;794922 said:
End of 2013 beginning of 2014 is when we will see the first wave of COEs come in when these cars hit the 10yr mark, if one wants to change car, the end 2013 period will be a good time to start looking.

The problem is owners who de-register their cars in 2013 would also buy new cars.

Population is growing at alarming rate but we have limited roads. Almost everyone wants to own a car. High COE would stay for the future unless we see an economic crisis hitting us. Even with a crisis, the dip would be temporary. This would be the only window where we could buy cars with low COE.
 
Re: COE Charts - Intepretations

agree. low coe could only be driven by fear (small window) and not low demand.
demand is high and continue to grow. now new graduates come out to work ... 1st job only want smelly smelly $3K leh ... 2 years experience $4K-$5K leh

Dinosaur hunter;794929 said:
The problem is owners who de-register their cars in 2013 would also buy new cars.

Population is growing at alarming rate but we have limited roads. Almost everyone wants to own a car. High COE would stay for the future unless we see an economic crisis hitting us. Even with a crisis, the dip would be temporary. This would be the only window where we could buy cars with low COE.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Re: COE Charts - Intepretations

wt_know;794925 said:
but if gov slash quota how
ie: 10,000 de-register but only re-release 7,000
that means 10,000 owners need to outbid each other for 7,000 coes?
even no slash in quota, isn't 10,000 existing owners scrap car and buy new car = no extra coe + still got new buyer coming into market?

I think it is unlikely they will cut the quota because they are still allowing vehicle growth at 0.5%. But like you say, i guess we'll never know, 2013 they may not expand at 0.5% but contract at 0.5% instead. :errrrrrr:
 
Re: COE Charts - Intepretations

don't think many of deregistering ppl will be buying new cars esp if COE prices maintain or even dip 20k.... it is still off the budget of what they bought last time.. and i don't think the median household income has jumped as much as the COE price in the same span of time.
 
Re: COE Charts - Intepretations

wt_know;794933 said:
agree. low coe could only be driven by fear (small window) and not low demand.
demand is high and continuous to grow. now new graduates come out to work ... 1st job only want smelly smelly $3K leh ... 2 years experience $4K-$5K leh

Can't blame them for asking $3k. Looking at the rate of inflation, $2k - 2.5K is sufficient but not fantastic. I really feel sorry for those who earn less than $1k. How they survive is what bothers me. This is the group that suffer most when inflation goes up.

The only way forward is to improve the public transport. They must further integrate different mode of public transport to encourage efficient usage. Besides that, government agencies must work hand in hand to integrate housing estate with the transport system.

Try using smaller buses for route where demand is lesser and bigger buses for high demand route. Many taxis are used as "private car" more of a taxi. Forgive me if I offend anyone but this is the hard truth. One may argue such "taxis" form a small percentage. But during peak hours, every taxi counts.

Explore non-traditional mode of public transport. Ferry sounds possible. We are no longer living in the 60's. Have to think out of the box to tackle the problems we face.
 
Re: COE Charts - Intepretations

i agree with your point. but, i also think that car and condo price is going to sky high no matter how great transport system is
we (the people) are aspired to own a car ($100K coe) and a private condo ($1500 psf). actually, the 5 C mentality has never gone away and will be here for long time
hence, one die die will buy no matter how expensive unless totally out of reach because one will say life is short ... why die with $1M in the bank

Dinosaur hunter;794955 said:
Can't blame them for asking $3k. Looking at the rate of inflation, $2k - 2.5K is sufficient but not fantastic. I really feel sorry for those who earn less than $1k. How they survive is what bothers me. This is the group that suffer most when inflation goes up.

The only way forward is to improve the public transport. They must further integrate different mode of public transport to encourage efficient usage. Besides that, government agencies must work hand in hand to integrate housing estate with the transport system.

Try using smaller buses for route where demand is lesser and bigger buses for high demand route. Many taxis are used as "private car" more of a taxi. Forgive me if I offend anyone but this is the hard truth. One may argue such "taxis" form a small percentage. But during peak hours, every taxi counts.

Explore non-traditional mode of public transport. Ferry sounds possible. We are no longer living in the 60's. Have to think out of the box to tackle the problems we face.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Re: COE Charts - Intepretations

That's why I am model citizen.

Leave car at home and take express bus or mrt to work. If I need the car after work, will park and ride.
 
Re: COE Charts - Intepretations

gerryoh;794940 said:
don't think many of deregistering ppl will be buying new cars esp if COE prices maintain or even dip 20k.... it is still off the budget of what they bought last time.. and i don't think the median household income has jumped as much as the COE price in the same span of time.

Agree with you. They will not buy new cars but they will buy a 2nd hand car that fit their budget. This group of buyers will ensure most of the 2nd hand cars are not scrapped before COE hit 10 year mark.

Traditionally those who bought high end cars will still buy. Singapore has never been short of rich people. They will still form the supporting factor for COE to hover around the current prices.

As for those stretching their budget owning 5-series, E-Class and A6, may see themselves having to downgrade to 3-series, C-class and A4.

I'm not saying that COE will keep going up and up. It will stabilize but it's still a crazy figure to many people.
 

Members online

No members online now.

Forum statistics

Threads
82,767
Messages
1,019,411
Members
78,670
Latest member
oxbett2com
Back
Top