STI and sing dollar falling fast,my coffin money eroding.

[centurion]

Originally Posted by bonsoir

Anyway, safe currencies are still CAD, HKD, SGD, as USD is artificially inflated due to the perception of World's reserve currencies.

Why not still in your precious metals? Maybe ETF or something for liquidity. Is there really a safe currency?

[timechaser]

Originally Posted by Darth Vader

a lot of singaporeans think the economy will improve in the later half of 2009.

Too true... would really like to know what they are smoking! Should be to get some of that. Make me in these sad times.

Darth - your statement is absolutely spot on and shows up the best in property markets. Owners are still talking exorbitant psf rates quoting rental yields from last 2 years...

As someone was pointing out to me - even though Singapore is small and the government has big reserves, the economy is predicated on: Retail, Construction, Shipping, Technology (some extent) and Oil. And guess what? All have gone downhill... and though the government is doing a good job (better than a lot of others) about warning people about the downturn - most people think this is just temporary and the economy will be back up later. Unfortunately, most of them are about discover that their worst fears will come true in the next 3-4 months.

Regarding wealth preservation - this is precisely what the paradox of thrift causes! You want to preserve wealth so stop shopping/spending, prices fall as more supply - causing deflation. But hold on, tomorrow it will be even cheaper because it is deflation! And that is an unending spiral. The only way to come out of the current situation is a high(er) rate of inflation bordering on hyperinflation. It will hurt but it is the only way. There is no soft landing here. So preserving wealth might be a good idea but looking at wise investment opportunities is a much much better idea. For example - once recovery starts, the world's going to start building again (Obama's stimulus plan calls for building high speed rail networks - need steel!) so resource based economies and currencies are going to be impacted positively. Case in point - AUD. Short term not good, but 1-2 years, DAMN good. Alternatively, cement or steel stocks.

Just need to use brains rather than follow someone's advice on the internet (yes I am telling you to not follow mine as well... do your own research)

[timechaser]

Originally Posted by centurion

Why not still in your precious metals? Maybe ETF or something for liquidity. Is there really a safe currency?

No safe currency bro, but some are pretty massively undervalued. See my argument for AUD above. I also believe that the USD is heavily overvalued and will deflate though in the short term, the best trade (3 months) is to convert to USD and park in time deposit with ICICI who are giving 5.5%. Convert to SGD post 3 months. SGD is much more at risk in the short term.

Alternatively, for a longer term holding - sterling is looking good as it has fallen much more than it should.

[kenntona]

Originally Posted by Darth Vader

a lot of singaporeans think the economy will improve in the later half of 2009. personally i think things will get worst and only improve in the later half of 2010. because singapore haven't experienced a recession lasting 8 quarters,people here have no idea a tsunami is coming. wealth preservation is top priority now,forget wealth generation.

Says who that we will recover so soon?

I think many Singaporeans are living in a disillusioned climate. In 1997, we were hit by a Thai / Indon / Malaysian financial crisis, and it took us down in 1998/99. It was not until end of 2005 we fought back to the pre-crisis levels in both the stock market and property cycle. We saw a 6-7 year cycle.

Now?

Bigger issue at hand. Started only in end 2008. And we will be fine in 2009 or 2010? I am not so sure......

The other angle - what are the main growth pillars of our economy? (1) Finance (2) Manufacturing (3) Refining.

Note that 2 pillars are structurally down. Reversible? Not so sure.

[centurion]

here's more gold propaganda: Gold Fever: Still a Long Way Away -- Seeking Alpha

[bonsoir]

Originally Posted by kenntona

Says who that we will recover so soon?

I think many Singaporeans are living in a disillusioned climate. In 1997, we were hit by a Thai / Indon / Malaysian financial crisis, and it took us down in 1998/99. It was not until end of 2005 we fought back to the pre-crisis levels in both the stock market and property cycle. We saw a 6-7 year cycle.

Now?

Bigger issue at hand. Started only in end 2008. And we will be fine in 2009 or 2010? I am not so sure......

The other angle - what are the main growth pillars of our economy? (1) Finance (2) Manufacturing (3) Refining.

Note that 2 pillars are structurally down. Reversible? Not so sure.

Bro Kenntona,
Agree with you...haa...alot of us are still living in denial.

If some of you recall last mid year, our very own Wee Cho yaw stood up during one of the NUS convocation thingy, that being a banker for 50 years? he's never seen such a jia lat thing happened before. And then a few weeks later. SDIC (Singapore depository Ins co) assured singaporeans that monies in local banks will be safe and protected up to 100k instead of the usual 20k? (it was a sign liao that even our best will not know how to manage this as it's a major global crisis).

i don't see any upswing until at least 2011, so most of us, (i think) may be in for a really balls squeezing ride this whole year.... :-)

I'm not an expert, just that i've always had an interest in economics for my moons....since my days in the states...many many moons ago.... :-)

cheerio
Bonsoir

[bonsoir]

Just need to use brains rather than follow someone's advice on the internet (yes I am telling you to not follow mine as well... do your own research) [/QUOTE]

Yup,
agreed. my advice is actually my own opinion....and everyone is entitled to that
hhahahah
Anyway, u are also correct. most of my clients in manufacturing are and most probably calling it quits very soon (i am talkin about huge companies).
We are basically being turned into a services hub (just like HK). eventually, gambling hub (with the IR)....bo bian one....

As to wealth preservation? there's only so much we can do. it's a worldwide financial shaking la....can't do much one...
But Gold, silver is still the only "currency" la....paper money is fiat currencies...but still can't do away wor...how to buy 2 packs of char kway tiao with Gold coins? hahaa...no way man....

Cheers
:-)

[bonsoir]

Originally Posted by Darth Vader

a lot of singaporeans think the economy will improve in the later half of 2009.
personally i think things will get worst and only improve in the later half of 2010.

because singapore haven't experienced a recession lasting 8 quarters,people here have no idea a tsunami is coming.

wealth preservation is top priority now,forget wealth generation.

Hey Darth,
I super agree with u on the preservation mode. rather than generation (but may represent some good buys in the months to come....monthssssss.....heee)
I bumped into an old Uni mate 2 weeks ago, he told me he is averaging down on his CITI shares....he and a few others (same clique ones) started buying when it dropped to USD$9....and when he bumped into me? he told me to BUY as it was around USD$3.80?....

he told me he bleeding...but bo bian...still hanging on....and current i think lesser than USD$2? terok la...i told him "don't buy la friend" but knowing him as the proverbial high risk gambler type...bo bian...(shake head)...

[Darth Vader]

have converted all my assets to gold,when i can smell stability i will convert them into commodities.

SGD not safe,government safe box not as full as in 1998.reduced power to defend currency.
i dont think any currency is safe at the moment.people might say US dollar is safe,i rather have gold.

[Darth Vader]

Originally Posted by bonsoir

Hey Darth,
I super agree with u on the preservation mode. rather than generation (but may represent some good buys in the months to come....monthssssss.....heee)
I bumped into an old Uni mate 2 weeks ago, he told me he is averaging down on his CITI shares....he and a few others (same clique ones) started buying when it dropped to USD$9....and when he bumped into me? he told me to BUY as it was around USD$3.80?....

he told me he bleeding...but bo bian...still hanging on....and current i think lesser than USD$2? terok la...i told him "don't buy la friend" but knowing him as the proverbial high risk gambler type...bo bian...(shake head)...

citi together with boa going to be nationalised(3 months timeframe)